Geopolitics

Can the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation bring India and Pakistan closer?
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Issue Vol. 33.3 Jul-Sep 2018 | Date : 18 Sep , 2018

With India and Pakistan as newly incorporated members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), China is likely to face an increasing amount of divisiveness within a regional economic and security organisation accustomed to extreme comity and cooperative discussions. The SCO could bring both the countries – India and Pakistan – closer, despite the dispute over Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the rising geo-political competition between the two Asian giants and different approaches to counter terrorism. This was achieved primarily because of healthy environment of give and take at the SCO. Even Chinese President Xi Jinping has said, “With the entry of India and Pakistan, the SCO has gained more potential for cooperation and greater expectations from the international community.”

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic and security organisation, the creation of which was announced on June 15, 2001, in Shanghai, China, by the Shanghai group comprising China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. The SCO Charter was signed in June 2002 and came into force on September 2003. These countries, except for Uzbekistan, had been members of the Shanghai Five group, founded on April 26, 1996, in Shanghai. India and Pakistan joined SCO as full members on June 09, 2017, at the summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

At the Dushanbe, Tajikistan summit in 2000, members agreed to “oppose intervention into the internal affairs other countries on the pretexts of ‘humanitarianism’ and ‘protecting human rights’; and support the efforts of one another in safeguarding their national independence, their sovereignty, territorial integrity and social stability.” The SCO in Ufa, Russia, decided to admit India and Pakistan as full members. Both signed the Memorandum of Obligations in June 2016 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, thereby starting the formal process of joining the SCO as full members. On June 09, 2017, at a summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, India and Pakistan officially joined the SCO as full-fledged members.

The SCO has established relations with the United Nations in 2004 (where it is an observer in the General Assembly), the Commonwealth of Independent States in 2005, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2005, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation in 2007, the Economic Cooperation Organisation in 2007, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime in 2011, the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in 2014 and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific in 2015.

In 2017, SCO’s eight full members accounted for approximately half of the world’s population, a quarter of the world’s GDP and about 80 per cent of Eurasia’s landmass…

In 2017, SCO’s eight full members accounted for approximately half of the world’s population, a quarter of the world’s GDP and about 80 per cent of Eurasia’s landmass. The Council of Heads of State is the top decision-making body in the SCO. This council meets at the SCO summits that are held each year in the capital city of one of the member states. The Council of Foreign Ministers also holds regular meetings where they discuss the current international situation and the SCO’s interaction with other international organisations. The Council of National Coordinators coordinates the multilateral cooperation of member states within the framework of the SCO’s charter. The Secretariat of the SCO located at Beijing is the primary executive body of the organisation. It serves to implement organisational decisions and decrees; drafts proposed documents such as declarations and agendas; functions as a document depository for the organisation; arranges specific activities within the SCO framework and promotes as well as disseminates information about the SCO. The current Secretary-General of SCO is Rashid Alimov of Tajikistan who was appointed to this office in January 2016.

Activities of the SCO

Military Activities

The Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), headquartered in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, is a permanent organ of the SCO which serves to promote cooperation between the member states against the three evils of terrorism, separatism and extremism. The Head of RATS is elected to a three-year term. Each member state also sends a permanent representative to RATS. Over the past few years, the activities of the organisation have expanded to include military cooperation, intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism.

There have been a number of joint military exercises in the SCO. The first of these was held in 2003, with the first phase taking place in Kazakhstan and the second in China. Since then, China and Russia have teamed up for large-scale war games in 2005 (Peace Mission 2005), 2007 and 2009, under the auspices of the SCO. More than 4,000 soldiers participated at the joint military exercises in 2007 known as “Peace Mission 2007”, which took place in Chelyabinsk Russia near the Ural Mountains, as was agreed upon in April 2006 at a meeting of SCO Defence Ministers. Peace Mission 2010, conducted from September 09 to 25, at Kazakhstan’s Matybulak training area, saw over 5,000 personnel from China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan carry out joint planning and operational manoeuvres.

On June 16, 2009, at the Yekaterinburg Summit, China announced plans to provide a $10 billion loan to SCO member states to shore up the struggling economies of its members amid the global financial crisis…

Economic Activities

Russia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are also members of the Eurasian Economic Union to enhance economic cooperation. This was formally approved by the member states of the SCO on September 23, 2003. A follow-up plan with 100 specific actions was signed one year later, on September 23, 2004. On October 26, 2005, during the Moscow Summit, the SCO prioritised joint energy projects which included the oil and gas sector, the exploration of new hydrocarbon reserves and joint use of water resources. The creation of an Inter-bank SCO Council was also agreed upon at that summit in order to fund joint projects in the future. The first meeting of the Inter-bank SCO Council was held in Beijing on February 21, 2006.

At the 2007 SCO summit, Parviz Davudi, Vice President of Iran said, “The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is a good venue for designing a new banking system which is independent of the international banking systems.” Vladimir Putin, President of Russia said, “We now clearly see the defectiveness of the monopoly in world finance and the policy of economic selfishness. To solve the current problem, Russia will take part in changing the global financial structure so that it will be able to guarantee stability and prosperity in the world and to ensure progress.” On June 16, 2009, at the Yekaterinburg Summit, China announced plans to provide a $10 billion loan to SCO member states to shore up the struggling economies of its members amid the global financial crisis.

Cultural Activities

Cultural cooperation also occurs in the SCO framework. Culture Ministers of the SCO met for the first time in Beijing on April 12, 2002, signing a joint statement for continued cooperation. The third meeting of the Culture Ministers took place in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on April 27, 2006. An SCO Arts Festival and Exhibition was held for the first time during the Astana Summit in 2005.

With the entry of India and Pakistan, the SCO has gained more potential for cooperation and greater expectations from the international community…

Possibility of India – Pakistan Cooperation

With India and Pakistan as newly incorporated members of the SCO, China is likely to face an increasing amount of divisiveness within a regional economic and security organisation accustomed to extreme comity and cooperative discussions. The SCO could bring both the countries – India and Pakistan – closer, despite the dispute over Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the rising geopolitical competition between the two Asian giants and different approaches to counter terrorism. This was achieved primarily because of the healthy environment of ‘give and take’ at the SCO. Even Chinese President Xi Jinping has said, “With the entry of India and Pakistan, the SCO has gained more potential for cooperation and greater expectations from the international community.” In his address to the representatives to the 13th meeting of Security Council Secretaries of the SCO in Beijing on May 22, 2018, President Xi Jinping said that maintaining regional security and stability has been the top priority of the bloc ever since it was founded. The SCO members have fought the ‘three evil forces’ of terrorism, separatism and extremism; prevented the overflow of negative effects from hot issues as also have made important contribution to keeping regional peace, development and prosperity. The SCO members should uphold the strategic direction of security cooperation, continue to boost mutual strategic trust, enhance coordination of policy, uphold justice and jointly push the resolution of regional hot issues through political and diplomatic measures.

The Pakistan government had also welcomed delegations from SCO member states on May 23, 2018. It claimed its support for SCO’s efforts in regional cooperation against terrorism, drug trafficking and organised crime. Experts from the eight Shanghai SCO member states–China, Kazakhstan, India, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan, as well as representatives of the SCO-RATS, participated in the meeting held on May 23 and 25, 2018.

Russia first proposed India as a member to complement bilateral economic and security engagement, but mainly to contain China’s growing influence in the organisation…

Role of China vis-a-vis India in the SCO

According to Derek Grossman, Senior Defence Analyst at the nonprofit, non-partisan RAND Corporation of the United States of America (USA), Beijing may not have even wanted India to join the SCO. Russia first proposed India as a member to complement bilateral economic and security engagement, but mainly to contain China’s growing influence in the organisation. Russia is increasingly concerned that post-Soviet SCO members — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, are drifting into China’s geo-strategic orbit. For example, it is well known that Moscow has long delayed implementing Chinese initiatives that would enable Beijing to reap greater benefits from regional trade, including establishing the SCO’s regional trade agreement and bank.

As China gains more clout in Central Asia, Moscow welcomed New Delhi by its side to occasionally strengthen Russia’s hand at slowing or opposing Chinese initiatives. Indeed, during a recent visit to Moscow, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “India and Russia have always been together on international issues.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s informal summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia on May 21, 2018, is part of the regular consultation between the leadership of two countries. This has been an important occasion for the two leaders to exchange views on international matters in a broad and long-term perspective with the objective of further strengthening Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.

Going forward, this strategy is likely to pay rich dividends. New Delhi has a major hang-up related to the activities of its archrival Pakistan, sponsored by Beijing at the 2015 SCO summit to balance Moscow’s support of India and continues to be highly critical of China’s so-called “all-weather friendship” with Islamabad. In May 2018, New Delhi refused to send a delegation to Beijing’s widely publicised ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ summit which was aimed at increasing trade and infrastructure connectivity between China and Eurasian countries. According to the Indian government, the flagship project of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ — the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, was not “pursued in a manner that respects sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Indian opposition stems from the plan to build the corridor through the disputed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) region and to link it to the strategically positioned Pakistani port of Gwadar, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to raise the issue again during his acceptance speech at the SCO summit last month.

New Delhi is likely to continue criticising the corridor in the context of the SCO because, as a full member, India has the right to protest developments that do not serve the interests of SCO members. The SCO also offers another public stage for India to constantly question the intent behind China’s exceptionally close ties with Pakistan. However, Beijing can play a balancing act to bring sobriety between the two warring countries India and Pakistan by supporting genuine demands of India on terrorism and counseling India on J&K for peaceful negotiations.

The SCO also offers another public stage for India to constantly question the intent behind China’s exceptionally close ties with Pakistan…

India-Pakistan tensions also occasionally flare up, and Beijing may have to brace for either side to use the SCO as a platform to mediate for an amicable solution. In the absence of a major incident, Beijing has admirably handled the delicacy of this situation. When asked in early June 2018 as to whether SCO membership would positively impact India-Pakistan relations, China’s spokesperson Hua Chunying said, “I see the journalist from Pakistan sitting right here, while journalists from India sit over there. Maybe someday you can sit closer to each other.” Additionally, the Chinese military’s unofficial mouthpiece, Global Times, published an op-ed suggesting that SCO membership for India and Pakistan would lead to positive bilateral developments. Even if that were overly optimistic, it would set the right tone as the organisation forges ahead.

But the odds are against China’s desired outcome. Beijing needs to look no farther than South Asia for a cautionary tale. In this region, both India and Pakistan are members of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). New Delhi, along with Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan, boycotted last year’s summit in Islamabad because it believed Pakistan was behind a terrorist attack on an Indian army base in J&K. Even with an official ban on discussing bilateral issues in its proceedings, SAARC has been perennially hobbled by the intrusion of India-Pakistan disputes. Beijing can probably keep its close friend Islamabad in line at the SCO, but New Delhi would also have to fall in line.

Full Membership of SCO for Afghanistan

Beijing has consistently looked the other way as Pakistani intelligence services continue to support terrorist groups in Afghanistan…

Another major issue for the SCO to contend with is the security of Afghanistan. An integral component of the organisation is the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure, aimed at combating China’s “three evils” — terrorism, extremism, and separatism. India, however, is likely to reliably and reasonably highlight the contradiction between China’s stated anti-terrorism goals and the reality of its policy. Most notably, Beijing has consistently looked the other way as Pakistani intelligence services continue to support terrorist groups in Afghanistan, including the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network. Moreover, India being particularly close to the Afghanistan, could seek to sponsor Afghanistan to move from observer status to full SCO membership. This would give India even greater strength in the group and could bolster Russia’s position as well.

Concluding Thoughts

Lingering border disputes and fierce geostrategic competition in South Asia between China and India are likely to temper any cooperation Beijing might hope to achieve with New Delhi in the SCO. The unfolding Doklam dispute is the latest example of tense relations at multiple points along their Line of Actual Control (LAC). On the one hand, mutual suspicions in the maritime domain persist with the Indian government recently shoring up its position in the strategically important Andaman and Nicobar island chain to counter the perceived Chinese “string of pearls” strategy that is aimed at establishing access to naval ports throughout the Indian Ocean that could be militarily advantageous in a conflict. Such mutual suspicions are likely to impact SCO discussions on military matters.

Although India may be an unwelcome addition and irritant to Beijing at the SCO, China does not necessarily need the SCO to achieve its regional objectives…

On the other hand, China has Naval Bases in the making –Gwadar/ Pakistan, Hambantota/ Sri Lanka, Chittagong/ Bangladesh, Kyauskpyu/ Myanmar, Gan/ Maldives plus three Ports, Iskander, Klang and Meluka in Malaysia besides railway from its Malacca Straits/ West Coast to East Coast South China Sea. Australian Islands of Coco and Chrisma, Souith West of Indonesia, have 80 per cent of Chinese population from where American and Australian P-8 Maritime Aircraft would be operating for surveillance in the South China Sea, the Bay of Bengal as also in the waters of Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

Buy Now: Indian Defence Review Jul-Sep 2018 (Vol 33.3)

Although India may be an unwelcome addition and irritant to Beijing at the SCO, China does not necessarily need the SCO to achieve its regional objectives. For instance, even though India rejected Beijing’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ overture, China remains India’s top trading partner and a critical market for all Central and South Asian states, leaving them with few other appealing options.

Regardless of the bickering between countries that may break out, Beijing is expected to show off the importance of the SCO with all pomp and show of circumstances at the next summit in June 2018, an event that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to attend. China, as the host, can emerge as a peacemaker in the continent if it handles the summit carefully by accepting members’ genuine viewpoint and accepting their justified demands. This is a golden opportunity for China to display its statesmanship by creating a peaceful environment where all disputes among the member countries are discussed especially India and Pakistan, to arrive at a reasonable solution or a stage is set for further negotiations amicably agreed upon.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Col (Dr) PK Vasudeva

is author of World Trade Organisation: Implications for Indian Economy, Pearson Education and also a former Professor International Trade.

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